What Could Go Right?

The first quarter of 2025 brought a notable shift in market conditions, driven by renewed geopolitical tension, shifting policy expectations, and deteriorating investor sentiment.

In this environment, it’s easy to focus on what can go wrong. But extreme pessimism often signals a turning point. In this update, we explore why now may be the time to start thinking about what could go right—and how we’ve positioned portfolios to remain resilient and responsive.

Crossroads

As we move through the first quarter of 2025, financial markets remain at an interesting crossroads - supported by economic resilience yet facing risks that could test investor confidence.

Shifting Landscape

As we enter the closing stages of 2024, the global landscape is undergoing a notable transformation. Donald Trump's re-election, alongside a Republican majority in the House and Senate, has introduced a refreshed stance on geopolitics, fiscal policy, and international economic growth, reshaping the financial horizon.

Slowing but Growing

Recent data suggests a potential soft landing for the global economy, as an increasing number of central banks are cutting rates to sustain growth amidst slowing momentum and inflation.

Delayed Not Derailed

The strong momentum behind markets continued throughout the first quarter of 2024, with the Global Equity index climbing 14%, taking its annual return to 26%. 

Our report examines the key themes driving markets, risks and opportunities for 2024 and beyond. 

The Everything Rally

Contrary to expectations of an impending recession, 2023 was a favourable year for investors, with Global Equities and Bonds gaining +22% and +5%, respectively. 

Our report examines the key themes driving markets, risks and opportunities for 2024 and beyond. 

Defying Trends

Our October report examines the key themes, risks and opportunities for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. 

Overall, the economy continues to defy expectations. Resilient growth reflects longer-than-expected policy lags, supported by an uneven interest rate burden that will keep rates higher for longer.

We are locking in higher yields by increasing our overweight position to Fixed Interest.

Playing it Safe

So far, 2023 has been better than expected, with a broad range of assets delivering healthy returns in the face of weak confidence.

Our April report examines the key themes driving these returns and the outlook.

Rotating the strike

Welcome to the January 2023 edition of our Quarterly Investment Report.

This report brings you key investment insights from our research partners and independent advisory board.

Margin of Safety

Welcome to the October 2022 edition of our Quarterly Investment Report.

This report brings you key investment insights from our research partners and independent advisory board.